Las preferencias partidistas y la importancia de las campañas en las elecciones mexicanas del 2006

Gonzalo Castañeda, Ignacio Ibarra

Resumen


En este artículo se presentan los resultados de la estimación de tres modelos logit de tipo multinominal (uno para cada candidato) que validan el efecto que tiene una campaña electoral sobre los cambios observados en las preferencias partidistas. Con estos modelos se describen las modificaciones en las intenciones de voto declaradas en dos levantamientos de una encuesta panel sobre las elecciones presidenciales de México en el 2006. El análisis econométrico avala la hipótesis de que la influencia local (redes de discusión política) y la influencia global (audiencia televisiva, debates, campañas negativas) ejercieron un impacto significativo sobre las preferencias de los votantes.


Palabras clave


Redes políticas de discusión; campañas electorales; México; logit multinominal; networks of political discussion; electoral campaigns; multi-logit models

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